Forex − Risk aversion remains high in currencies after weak data and lower stock markets

The Dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Monday, as weak US manufacturing data deepened worries about the global economy that worldwide leaders ended a weekend meeting with few concrete proposals for dealing with this year’s downturn. The Euro slipped versus the Dollar in a choppy session, but was off its lows for the day, as risk aversion remained elevated on news Japan’s economy slid into recession in Q3. Further weighing on the market came after record low report of Empire Manufacturing and news that Citigroup intends to slash up to 50k jobs or 15% of its work force. That depressed Wall Street, with major indexes falling more than 2%. US data showing industrial production rose 1.3% in October, after a downwardly revised September drop of 3.7%, the biggest fall in more than 62 years, did little to ease worries about the world’s largest economy. The bounce in production has been attributed to a post-hurricane rebound and analysts say this was not a sign that downward pressure on the US economy was easing. In fact, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s latest Survey of Professional Forecasters said the US economy dipped into a recession last spring and will contract sharply this quarter. Lately the Dollar rises against a broad range of currencies and the Yen gains as well when risk appetite is low because investors seek refuge in US Treasuries and unwind trades financed with the cheaply borrowed Yen.

Yesterday, EurUsd was down 0.36% at 1.2644 rebounding from 1.2513 intraday low. EurJpy was 1.1% at 121.86. UsdJpy was 0.73% lower at 96.38. GbpUsd rose 1.25% at 1.4987 having posted 1.5083 intraday high. GbpJpy rose 0.51% at 144.45 with 146.50 intraday high. UsdChf rose to 1.2007 1-year high and ended 0.58% higher at 1.1988.

In Washington over the weekend, leaders of the Group of 20 countries drafted steps to rescue the world economy from its worst crisis in 80 years but left it to individual governments to tailor their responses to their own circumstances and troubled industries. Traders and analysts remained skeptical on the British currency given signs of worsening UK economic conditions. The Confederation of British Industry said Monday the UK economy in 2009 will suffer its sharpest contraction in almost two decades and unemployment could approach 3 million by 2010.

Treasury pays $33.56B to 21 banks

WASHINGTON – The government said Monday it has supplied $33.56 billion to 21 banks in a second round of payments from the $700 billion rescue program, and announced a deadline for another 3,800 banks to apply for funds.

The Treasury Department said a category of privately held banks will have until Dec. 8 to apply for the government to purchase shares of their stock as a way to bolster their balance sheets. The deadline for the larger publicly traded banks was Nov. 14.

The new Dec. 8 deadline will apply to about 3,800 banks that are so-called C-Corps institutions for the part of the tax code that applies to them. Another 2,500 S-Corps institutions also will be able to apply for money, but Treasury has not set the deadline for their applications.

The new deadline was announced as Treasury confirmed a second round of government stock purchases that follow the initial $125 billion it allocated to nine of the country’s largest banks. The rescue program now has earmarked payments of $158.56 billion to banks.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced last week the administration was abandoning the initial centerpiece of the rescue program, the purchase of troubled mortgage-backed securities from banks in an effort to bolster their balance sheets.

That was the only program Paulson mentioned as Congress debated the rescue package, which was approved on Oct. 3. However, Paulson later said the severity of the financial crisis made him realize it would take too long to get the troubled asset program into operation.

In its place, he announced on Oct. 14 that the government would buy shares of bank stock as a way to quickly inject fresh capital into the institutions.

He pressured nine of the largest banks to participate in the program during an Oct. 13 meeting at the Treasury Department, arguing that they should go along with the idea to remove the stigma other banks might feel in getting money from the government.

The rescue program has drawn a significant amount of criticism from lawmakers who have objected to the sudden switch in emphasis and what they see as a lack of restrictions on the funds. The critics contend that banks can simply hoard the fresh capital or use it to pay dividends to their shareholders or acquire other institutions rather than using it to boost their lending.

Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke are scheduled to testify Tuesday before the House Financial Services Committee to answer questions that have been raised about the bailout program.

The Treasury announcement on Monday said the largest stock purchase in the second round was $6.6 billion paid to U.S. Bancorp of Minneapolis. The smallest stock purchase was $9 million paid to Broadway Financial Corp. of Los Angeles.

Many of the banks in the second group of 21 already announced that the government was purchasing stock after they had reached preliminary agreements. Treasury does not make any announcement until after the final legal documents are signed, a process that can take a month from when the preliminary agreements are reached.

The department noted that the $10 billion scheduled to be paid to Merrill Lynch & Co. has been deferred pending the completion of that company’s acquisition by Bank of America Corp.

Oil lingers near $55 as investors mull recession

SINGAPORE – Oil prices lingered near $55 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as investors mulled more dire news pointing to a prolonged recession in developed countries and continuing weakness in demand for crude.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery was up 36 cents to $55.31 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract Monday fell $2.09 to settle at $54.95, the lowest since January 2007. Prices have fallen about 62 percent since reaching a record $147.27 in mid-July.

Stock markets, which oil investors use to gauge sentiment about the global economy, fell on mounting evidence that U.S. consumers are cutting spending as big corporations shed tens of thousands of staff.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 2.3 percent Monday, and Asian stocks were lower across the board Tuesday. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei index fell 2.3 percent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slid 5.1 percent and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index dropped 3.9 percent.

“We’re hearing bad news every day,” said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with consultancy Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. “The market has priced in a recession in the developed countries and a slowdown in China so the uncertainty is how long and deep this recession will be.”

Citigroup Inc. said it’s cutting another 53,000 jobs in the coming quarters after announcing last month it would lay off 22,000 workers. Analysts forecast Wall Street could lose up to 200,000 jobs by year-end.

Retailer Target Corp. said profit fell 24 percent in the third quarter and Lowe’s Cos. predicted a fourth-quarter profit below the average analyst forecast.

“The $55 level has gotten some support,” Shum said. “But downward pressure continues and we may approach $50.”

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which accounts for about 40 percent of world crude supply, will have an informal meeting later this month, and some members are calling for another production cut on top of the 1.5 million barrels a day reduction the group announced last month.

OPEC will more likely reduce output quotas at it next official meeting on Dec. 17, Shum said.

“The cuts will not have much impact on pricing because the downward spiral has been due to recession fears and a substantial reduction in demand,” Shum said. “However, the cuts will set up a price resurgence down the line when the economy finally recovers.”

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures rose 1.02 cent to $1.18 a gallon. Heating oil gained 2.40 cents to $1.81 a gallon while natural gas for December delivery increased 1.4 cents to $6.56 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, December Brent crude rose 30 cents to $52.60 on the ICE Futures exchange.

Bagaimana menangani kerugian dalam Forex

Ramai trader yang gagal dalam forex disebabkan antaranya apabila kita gagal mengawal kerugian. Selalunya yang berlaku ialah kita selalu beranggapan pilihan yang kita lakukan adalah betul walaupun pasaran menunjukkan sebaliknya. Sebagai contohnya, kita memilih long EU, akan tetapi apabila kita memasuki pasaran, EU menunjukkan kejatuhan harga, apa yang akan kita lalukan apabila posisi berkenaan mengalami kerugian ?

Bagi saya, di sinilah antara kepentingan disiplin. Jika kita menetapkan tahap kerugian yang boleh diterima adalah 40 pips (tahap kerugian bergantung kepada sdr sendiri), jika anda telah mengalami kerugian sejumlah itu, perkara yang betul untuk dilakukan adalah menutup posisi berkenaan dan menanti peluang baik yang seterusnya. Selalunya, kita akan cuba menenangkan hati dengan menganggap harga berkenaan akan kembali menurut kehendak kita. Rules yang penting dalam forex, “follow the trend”. Ikut je trend major ke arah mana.

Apabila mengalami kerugian, bawa bertenang. Mungkin anda boleh berhenti sebentar dan menghabiskan rokok sebatang, mungkin bersembang ngan bini atau kawan-kawan. Yang pentingnya, jangan terbawa-bawa dengan kerugian tadi.

Yang menjadi masalah utama dalam forex, ialah trader memasuki posisi seolah-olah esok sudah mahu kiamat. Adalah perlu diingati dalam setiap diri trader, esok masih ada. Bukan semua trade akan dimenangi oleh kita dan bukan semua trade kita akan kalah. Yang pentingnya ialah di setiap hujung bulan, akaun kita semakin bertambah. Lihat akaun saya semalam

ACCOUNT ACTIVITY
Time Posted	Code	Description	Account #	Ticket #	Amount	Balance
11/16/08 8:38 PM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04295366	2.11	589.12
11/16/08 9:34 PM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04297458	-11.63	577.49
11/16/08 9:34 PM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04297584	-10.82	566.67
11/16/08 9:36 PM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04298477	0.10	566.77
11/16/08 10:03 PM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04298973	0.15	566.92
11/16/08 10:06 PM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04298955	1.14	568.06
11/16/08 10:06 PM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04298936	0.89	568.95
11/16/08 10:14 PM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04298995	-2.10	566.85
11/17/08 1:25 AM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04301114	5.11	571.96
11/17/08 1:25 AM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04301743	6.41	578.37
11/17/08 1:46 AM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04307782	3.94	582.31
11/17/08 1:46 AM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04307689	2.92	585.23
11/17/08 1:53 AM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04307769	9.70	594.93
11/17/08 6:10 AM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04316786	0.88	595.81
11/17/08 6:12 AM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04316774	4.89	600.70
11/17/08 6:31 AM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04318068	0.47	601.17
11/17/08 6:31 AM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04318072	0.88	602.05
11/17/08 9:18 AM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04323749	0.21	602.26
11/17/08 9:26 AM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04324275	0.88	603.14
11/17/08 9:34 AM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04323739	-4.04	599.10
11/17/08 10:37 AM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04329101	0.68	599.78
11/17/08 12:09 PM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04334868	0.00	599.78
11/17/08 12:30 PM	PnL	Profit/Loss of Trade	6018813352	04336336	-0.24	599.54
Total:					12.53

Anda boleh lihat bukan semuanya untung, bahkan pagi semalam saya mengalami kerugian lebih 200 pips, yang pentingnya ialah bagi saya, untuk semalam saya mendapat 125 pips (micro lot) bersih selepas kerugian.

Sekali lagi, jika rugi, terima lah kerugian itu dan tunggu peluang yang baik untuk memasuki semula trade. Ingat, esok masih ada . Terima kasih

Last Week Best Perfomance

Memaparkan kenyataan akaun adalah sesuatu yang cukup malas nak dibuat, bagaimanapun untuk menunjukkan apa yang boleh anda dapati daripada forex, saya paparkan akaun micro saya di FXCM bagi minggu lepas 10-15 November 2008. Kenyataan ini bukanlah untuk menunjukkan apa-apa, mungkin anda boleh melakukan dan telah melakukan yang lebih baik daripada ini. Statement ini adalah memberikan semangat kepada kita semua untuk membuat duit dengan forex. Akaun ini adalah akaun micro di mana 1 pips = 10 sen.

Lihat Statement ini di sini. Harap maaf, nama dan alamat telah dipadamkan, anda boleh menghubungi FXCM untuk mengesahkan samada akaun ini real account ataupun dmeo.

Bagaimana memilih Forex Broker

Antara perkara asas yang penting dalam forex ialah memilih broker forex yang betul. Bagi pandangan saya, pemilihan broker forex perlulah berdasarkan kepada perkara-perkara berikut tanpa menurut keutamaan susunan:

1. Tahap pendaftaran broker berkenaan dengan badan-badan yang berkaitan, misalnya jika broker berkenaan di Amerika Syarikat, ianya hendakah berdaftar dengan NFA.

2. Kadar spread yang ditawarkan. Paling rendah adalah 2 pips bagi EUR/USD.

3. Rekod pembayaran daripada broker. Ini adalah penting untuk memastikan keuntungan anda boleh dibuat kepada anda.

4. Prestasi server dan pemenuhan order. Adalah penting untuk anda mengelakkan broker yang selalu memberikan requote apabila anda membuat order.

5. Kadar spread pada waktu News. Kebanyakan broker akan meningkatkan kadar spread pada waktu News yang utama.

Kesilapan anda memilih broker boleh menyebabkan anda mengalami kerugian. Untuk menilai prestasi dan pandangan pengguna mengenai broker-broker forex anda boleh melayari :

1. Forexfactory.com

2. Forexpeacearmy.com

dan pelbagai lagi, ataupun anda membuat carian dalam google dengna menggunakan nama broker review.

Selamat berjaya.

Forex losses send S.Koreas Daewoo Ship into red

Daewoo Shipbuilding the worlds third-largest shipbuilder, said on Friday that it suffered a huge foreign exchange-related loss for the third quarter, sending its bottom line into the red.

The dockyard operator said in a regulatory filing that for the July to September period it recorded 231.5 billion won ($166.1 million) in losses from foreign exchange derivative investments as the won unexpectedly tumbled against the dollar.

The loss in the non-operating item was equivalent to about 13.1 percent of the companys capital base.

As a result, for the third quarter Daewoo saw a net loss of 84.9 billion won, versus a 114.6 billion won profit a year earlier, a company spokesman said.

Operating profit was 107 billion won and sales stood at 2.66 trillion won for the third quarter, he said.

For the nine months to September, Daewoos foreign exchange-related losses totalled 380.1 billion won.

Shares in Daewoo soared almost 15 percent Friday after preferred bidder Hanwha Group signed a memorandum of understanding to acquire a controlling stake in the shipbuilder.

Daewoos top shareholder Korea Development Bank also said in a statement that a consortium led by Hanwha was expected to soon launch due diligence on the shipbuilder for three to four weeks. -Reuters

India: Company results to show forex losses

NEW DELHI: Companies may soon be forced to reveal losses from foreign exchange fluctuations in their financial results.

The government is likely to take away an accounting loophole that has till now enabled some of them not to show such losses in their books of accounts.

The ministry of corporate affairs is working on a clarification that will force companies to highlight the effects of any gain or loss incurred due to fluctuations in forex rates in their books. A formal government order could be issued in a few months.

Forex: Bolehkah Menjadi Kaya Dengan Forex ?

Anda telah mendengarnya. Kawan-kawan, saudara-mara anda atau kawan kepada kawan anda memberitahu beliau telah kerugian ribuan ringgit dalam perdagangan matawang ataupun forex. Anda yang sebelum ini cukup berminat dengan forex, apatah lagi melihat iklan dalam akhbar atau online yang menanjikan pulangan ribuan ringgit dengan hanya beberapa minit sehari melihat komputer untuk meletakkan kedudukan order anda dalam forex, menjadi ragu samada forex benar-benar boleh membuat anda menjadi kaya atau sekurang-kurangnya memberikan anda pendapatan sampingan. Anda juga telah mendengar lebih 90 peratus pedagang forex mengalami kerugian, yang menambahkan lagi kerisauan anda.

Sebenarnya, forex memang boleh membuatkan sesiapa sahaja menjadi kaya dan juga menjadi miskin dengan sekejap sahaja. Memang itulah prinsip dalam perniagaan, risiko tinggi, untungnya besar. Bagi saya, yang telah terlibat dalam forex sejak setahun lepas, apa yang pentingnya ialah anda bersedia mengambil risiko untuk mendapatkan keuntungan. Jika anda tidak sanggap meletakkan 10,000 dolar ke dalam akaun forex anda, kenapa anda mesti mengikut kata-kata “guru forex” yang meminta anda memulakan akaun dengan jumlah itu atau 5,000 dolar.

Untuk forex, anda boleh bermula daripada serendah 10 dolar dengan menggunakan akaun micro seperti di fxmalay. Apakah yang dimaksudkan dengan akaun micro. Secara mudahnya akaun forex dibahagikan kepada 3 jenis iaitu akaun standard, akaun mini dan akaun micro. Bagi akaun standard, nilaian bagi satu pip utama dalam 10 dolar, manakala bagi akaun mini 1 dolar dan akaun micro 10 sen. Ini bermakna jika anda berjaya mendapat 20 pips sehari bagi akan standard akan akan mendapat 200 dolar sehari atau kira-kira RM700 sehari. Lumayan kan? atau 20 dolar sehari atau 2 ringgit sehari bagi akaun lain.

Kenapa “guru forex” anda meminta anda membuka akan ribuan dolar ?

Jawapannya mudah sekali. Supaya anda terus berangan-angan untuk mendapat pendapatan sampingan yang besar dengan jumlah satu pips bersamaan dengan 10 dollar. Anda mungkin tidak mengetahui kenapa anda membuat akaun melalui “guru forex” anda. Yang sebenarnya, jika anda membuka akaun standard, “guru forex” anda akan memperolehi keuntungan yang lebih banyak apabila akan melakukan trading, hasil daripada komisyen sejumlah 1 pips bagi setiap trade atau order anda. Samada anda untung atau rugi, “guru forex” anda akan tetap untung.

Soalannya, bolehkah menjadi kaya?

Jawapannya, boleh. Tetapi ia memerlukan pengetahuan, disiplin dan dedikasi dalam forex sama seperti dalam kerja-kerja anda yang lain. Adakah saya kaya dengan forex ? Tidak, forex saya yang untuk pendapatan sampingan sahaja dan blog ini hanya untuk beberapa komen dan rapuan saya mengenai forex. Terpulang kepada anda untuk menerimanya.

Forex: Broker FXMalay Boleh Dipercayai ?

FxMalay adalah laman web bagi trader forex dalam bahasa Malaysia untuk FXOpen adalah satu syarikat perkhidmatan kewangan khusus dalam menyediakan peniaga-peniaga dengan dagangan perkhidmatan dalam talian yang berkualiti tinggi. FXOpen menyediakan untuk individu peluang dan syarikat-syarikat swasta untuk berdagang di pasaran-pasaran kewangan di bawah syarat-syarat seimbang peniaga-peniaga yang sukakan operasi  secara tradisional dipusat-pusat kewangan dan institusi-institusi secara.

Membuka akaun hanya memerlukan dalam jangkamasa 5 minit dimana jua anda berada. Bukalah satu FOREX akaun dengan kami hari ini untuk menikmati faedah-faedah yang kami sediakan. Sebagai pelanggan FXOpen, anda boleh memilih dari menu yang penuh perkhidmatan profesional yang telah dikhususkan untuk memenuhi keperluan-keperluan dagangan anda, termasuk:

* Spread dari 2 pips
* Leverage dari 1:1 hingga 1:500
* Akaun Mikro serendah 1usd
* Akaun Standard serendah 25usd
* Pengurusan kewangan yang meluas
* Terminal Perdagangan MetaTrader 4
* Akaun Islamik
* Pelaksanaan Segera – Sistem sebut harga
* Bonus 100usd untuk Akaun Standard
* Sokongan dalam talian 24/5
* Membuka akaun hanya memerlukan dalam jangkamasa 5 minit dimana jua anda berada!

Bolehkah ia dipercayai ?

Saya telah menggunakan fxmalay sejak setahun lepas dan tidak ada masalah dalam pengeluaran dan deposit wang anda ke akaun perdagangan forex. Pengeluaran hanya mengambil masa tidak lebih daripada dua jam manakala deposit dalam sistem baru mereka mengambil masa tidak lebih 5 minit.

Apa yang menyenangkan berbanding dengan broker lain ialah anda boleh menggunakan maybank atau CIMB untuk deposit atau pengeluaran akaun forex anda. Mudah dan senang.

Jadi, adakah ianya boleh dipercayai ? Berdasarkan pengalaman saya setakat ini, saya tidak fikir ada apa-apa masalah dengan fxmalay/fxopen ini.Apatah lagi dengan spread tetap serendah 2 pips.

Apa lagi ? Buka akaun forex anda sekarang dan pastikan anda mengemailkan kepada saya no akaun anda selepas anda membuat trading yang pertama untuk BONUS RAHSIA yang akan membantu anda.

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